Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.194803 12.830335 14.593648 16.632585 18.921669 21.408583 24.311216
2025-06-15 8.811127 11.028710 13.606576 16.810480 20.670345 25.154375 30.740616
2025-06-22 7.745778 10.254502 13.312743 17.288265 22.289498 28.339811 36.176865
2025-06-29 6.641347 9.259989 12.594566 17.109830 23.015400 30.422317 40.352341
2025-07-06 5.549813 8.114064 11.511618 16.284551 22.747862 31.117552 42.682578
2025-07-13 5.089415 7.751295 11.400194 16.688943 24.063540 33.871951 47.769514
2025-07-20 4.676621 7.399344 11.251329 16.997552 25.227589 36.442887 52.698512
2025-07-27 4.219342 6.928560 10.880623 16.942015 25.848900 38.270252 56.664584
2025-08-03 3.786001 6.445286 10.440985 16.734692 26.211833 39.721123 60.135727
2025-08-10 3.462839 6.098249 10.169135 16.741914 26.865290 41.589019 64.254520
2025-08-17 3.214113 5.844199 10.013903 16.903760 27.740550 43.797874 68.941235
2025-08-24 2.950440 5.538322 9.748265 16.865032 28.291424 45.532561 72.980508
2025-08-31 2.680236 5.200793 9.412349 16.701254 28.653677 47.025930 76.771443
2025-09-07 2.493340 4.991165 9.270393 16.840108 29.497687 49.288625 81.829718
2025-09-14 2.386376 4.913875 9.342838 17.332884 30.928616 52.511892 88.489745
2025-09-21 2.179488 4.630320 9.033170 17.149096 31.224676 53.941773 92.375910
2025-09-28 1.898934 4.176902 8.383511 16.323780 30.385031 53.491190 93.218765
2025-10-05 1.818738 4.108739 8.427663 16.728447 31.662326 56.537988 99.829465
2025-10-12 1.731757 4.018084 8.421607 17.037917 32.783413 59.363986 106.176082
2025-10-19 1.606388 3.835428 8.226022 16.982189 33.250012 61.102420 110.771985
2025-10-26 1.474495 3.625402 7.960321 16.774454 33.426342 62.344731 114.568101
2025-11-02 1.377558 3.481534 7.813559 16.781681 33.988879 64.266055 119.579097
2025-11-09 1.304181 3.382851 7.749802 16.943873 34.841365 66.719574 125.585476